Will the Kalimantan Forest Fires Be Extinguished Before August 31?

This market predicts whether the ongoing forest and land fires (karhutla) in Kalimantan will be officially declared extinguished or under complete control before August 31, 2026. This market resolves YES if an authorized Indonesian government authority officially confirms by the end of August 30, 2026 that the ongoing forest and land fires being handled in Kalimantan have been extinguished and no longer require active firefighting operations, otherwise NO.

Resolution Basis: An official statement, report, or announcement from Indonesia's Ministry of Forestry or another authorized government authority confirming the extinguishment of the ongoing forest and land fires in Kalimantan.

Resolution Rules: The market resolves to YES if, on or before August 30, 2026, an authorized government source explicitly confirms that the ongoing forest and land fires covered by this market in Kalimantan have been extinguished, fully controlled with no active fire remaining, or that active firefighting operations have officially ended because the fires have been extinguished. The market resolves to NO if active forest or land fires remain, firefighting operations continue, or no qualifying official confirmation is issued by the end of August 30, 2026.

A decrease in hotspot numbers, rainfall, improved air quality, or a statement that fires are merely “under control” does not by itself qualify unless the official source clearly confirms that no active fire remains and active extinguishing operations are no longer required.

How it is determined: Official Ministry of Forestry and relevant government publications concerning the ongoing Kalimantan fires will be reviewed. The market will resolve YES only when a qualifying official statement confirms extinguishment before the deadline. If no such confirmation exists by the deadline, the market resolves NO.

Examples:

Government confirms all ongoing fires covered by the market are extinguished on August 28 → YES
Official report states no active fire remains and extinguishing operations have ended on August 30 → YES
Hotspots fall sharply but active firefighting continues → NO
Some affected areas are extinguished but active fires remain elsewhere within the scope of the ongoing Kalimantan fire event → NO
No official confirmation of extinguishment by the end of August 30 → NO

Important Notes: Hotspot counts alone do not determine settlement because a satellite-detected hotspot is not identical to a confirmed active forest or land fire. The market also does not require the permanent absence of every future hotspot in Kalimantan. Settlement concerns the ongoing forest and land fire incidents being actively handled during the market period and requires an official confirmation that those fires have been extinguished.

Source: Indonesia Ministry of Forestry official news and relevant official government reports concerning forest and land fires in Kalimantan.

Note: For this market, “before August 31” means a qualifying extinguishment must occur no later than August 30, 2026, 23:59 WIB. An official announcement published after the deadline may be used only if it clearly confirms that the qualifying extinguishment occurred on or before August 30. If official sources conflict, the latest formal statement from the authority directly responsible for handling the fires will take precedence.

Result will be verified using: Indonesia Ministry of Forestry official publications and relevant authorized government reports.