Will the Forest Fire Emergency Status Be Extended Through September 2026?

This market predicts whether an official forest and land fire (karhutla) emergency status in Indonesia will be extended so that its effective period covers any date in September 2026. This market resolves YES if an authorized Indonesian government authority officially issues or announces an extension of an existing karhutla emergency status that remains effective on or after September 1, 2026, otherwise NO.

Resolution Basis: An official decree, announcement, or publication from an authorized Indonesian government authority confirming that an existing forest and land fire emergency status has been extended into September 2026.

Resolution Rules: The market resolves to YES if an official extension of an existing karhutla emergency status is issued and the extended effective period includes at least one calendar day from September 1 through September 30, 2026. The market resolves to NO if no qualifying extension is officially confirmed, or if all applicable emergency statuses expire no later than August 31, 2026 without extension.

A newly declared emergency status that is not an extension of a pre-existing status does not qualify unless the official document explicitly describes it as an extension, continuation, renewal, or equivalent continuation of the existing emergency status.

How it is determined: Official government publications will be reviewed for a decree or announcement confirming the extension and its effective dates. The effective period stated in the official document will determine the outcome. A qualifying extension does not need to cover the entire month of September; coverage of at least one date in September 2026 is sufficient.

Examples:

Emergency status extended from August 31 to September 15 → YES
Emergency status extended through September 30 → YES
Official extension covers September 1–7 → YES
Emergency status expires August 31 with no extension → NO
A completely new status is declared in September without being an extension of the previous status → NO

Important Notes: Settlement is based on a formal decision or official announcement by an authorized government authority, not media speculation, unofficial statements, forecasts, hotspot counts, or the actual number of active fires. The existence of forest fires in September alone does not qualify.

Source: Indonesia Ministry of Forestry official publications and relevant official government announcements or decrees concerning forest and land fire emergency status.

Note: If an extension decision is issued before September but its effective period extends into September 2026, it qualifies for YES. If an official decision is published later but clearly states that the extension took effect during September 2026, it may also qualify. If conflicting information exists, the formal decree or announcement from the authority legally responsible for establishing the emergency status will take precedence.

Result will be verified using: Indonesia Ministry of Forestry official publications and the relevant authorized government decree or announcement.